Event Outcome: Affirmative or Negative?
$NaN Vol.
Event Outcome Forecast Rules
How it works
Take part in long-term, event-driven predictions, you can vote on significant outcomes with high relevance to global trends.
Time Coefficient Curve:
The earlier the vote is placed, the higher the proportion of rewards. The coefficient bonus varies depending on the time of the bet, and the coefficient is denoted as R(t)
$$R(t) = e^{-\frac{100\hspace{2pt}·\hspace{2pt}\ln(5)}{98T}\ ·t}$$T = the total time range during which bets can be placed
t = represents the specific time a user placed their bets
Example
Predict whether pump.fun will be banned in 2024 (UTC time)?
If 3 users vote a total of 600 USDT on 'Yes' and 2,000 users
vote a total of 10,000 USDT on 'No', and the result is that it
gets banned. Those who guessed incorrectly will not receive
any rewards. The 3 winners will split the 10,000 USDT
according to the amount they vote.
- Vote and Coefficient Distribution:
- R(1) = 0.938
- R(2) = 0.720
- R(3) = 0.196
- Profit Distribution:
- $$A: \frac{10000 \cdot 100 \cdot 0.983}{0.983 \cdot 100 + 0.72 \cdot 200 + 0.196 \cdot 300} = 3264U $$
- $$B: \frac{10000 \cdot 200 \cdot 0.720}{0.983 \cdot 100 + 0.72 \cdot 200 + 0.196 \cdot 300} = 4786U $$
- $$C: \frac{10000 \cdot 300 \cdot 0.196}{0.983 \cdot 100 + 0.72 \cdot 200 + 0.196 \cdot 300} = 1956U $$
TIME LEFT TO VOTE
-1d:-1h:-1m
$NaN Vol.
$NaN Vol.